Technology and jobs, whithergoestthou?
Whether in China or the United States, it is time to pause andassess the very real impact of technology’s advances onthosewhowilllose their jobs today as the so-called “jobs oftomorrow” arecreated.
Too often, “globalized” business leaders andmacroeconomistsblindly welcomeevery advance in productivity, while investors in turnrewardnews of resulting job reductionswith an upward tick in share prices. As technology advances, and wealth is increasingly concentrated, the challenges ofjobcreation and the need for bipartisan discussion on a way forward grow moreincreasingly pressing.
According to Credit Suisse’s Global Wealth Report 2016, the top one percent inRussiacontrolsnearly 75% of that nation’s wealth. For India, the figure is58.4%; Indonesia, 40%; Brazil, 48%; China 43.8%; and the United States, 42%.
And in a report released early this year at the World Economic Forum in DavosbyOxfam, the world’s eight richest billionaires now control the same wealth as do thepooresthalf of the earth’s population.
It is no surprise then that inequality – its causes and possible solutions – is aubiquitous topic of discussion. The debate over economic inequity rages in the Eastasin the West. Raising employment levels is seen as a major challenge fordevelopingand developed economies alike, and that includes both China and the United States.
No industry is exempt, and no country, no matter how protected, is able to escape theelimination of jobs “of the past” – too often with little consideration of the“peopleof today.”
All too often the blame is laid squarely on the shoulders of globalization. Witness thebreakoutof protests in Hamburg at the G20 summit. Witness also the relativesuccessof politicians who promised protections in the form of trade tariffs and aclosingof borders. Enduring wage disparities and outdated and imbalanced taxstructuresare also seen as contributors to growing inequality.
However, isit only the export of jobs that has led to unemployment or are we entering a bravenewworld of technology steadily eroding once secure foundations of employment?
Directly addressing that question can help lead to possible solutions, drawingperhapson apprenticeship programs and new management-employee relationshipsthatmay well disrupt our present thinking of the workplace.
A revolution iscertainlyon the way. 3D printing and the potential impact on design andmanufacturingof “printing” in a multi-dimensional manner is an example.
Essentially one can design a pair of shoes, use a 3D-printing facility and see theimmediategratification of creativity.
Take another example – driverless cars, which threaten to disrupt a range ofeveryday jobs, from that of traditional drivers and mechanics to those of the fewwhomay still be managinggas stations. Self-service gas pumps displaced attendants.Chargingstations for electric cars may well further disrupt gas stationseroding employment opportunities.
The ruthless advance of technology has implicationsfor Asia, particularly in thegarmentindustry. In many countries, the clothing industry did for Asia what theautoindustry had once done for the United States in terms of offering rising wagesandproviding non-farm employment.
Imagine a clothing industry, however, that is brought to the realm of desktoppublishing. As technology displaced a range of publishing jobs, an increasingly self-mannedand self-driven clothing sector couldsignificantly reduce, if noteliminate, the need for machine operators and button sewers. These and other jobsalloweda generation in Asia to entertain visions of life outside the farm.
The rise of manufacturing inChina, Vietnam and elsewhere in Asia has helpednationstransition between an agrarian-society towards more services-driveneconomies. Factories have employed millions as typically young Asian workersmovedon from their rural, agrarian lives and transitioned to more urban settings.
Now, an increasingly automated manufacturing industry couldsee roboticslimitthe opportunities and the path from factory work to the middle class.
Even in the services sector, the impact of technology on jobs is growing.A softwareprogramcaneliminate the army of junior researchers and outsourced analystswhohave been extracting the data, filling the spreadsheets and crunching the numbers.
Ever smarter “smart” machines are capable of collecting and processinginformation. The next step forrobo-advisors: drawing inferences, answeringquestionsand recommending actions.
As early as 2014, the Associated Press began to automate some of its corporate earnings reports.Robo-journalism has arrived.
Where will all these advances in technology take us?
Countries throughout the world have used monetary and fiscal policy to spur economic growth in the hope that greater growth will lead to higher employment.
Taxation is another weapon in the arsenal of governments seeking to incentivize behaviorand job creation.
In this brave new world of the knowledge economy, such government measuresaloneare unlikely to be sufficient. Indeed, the solutionswill have tobe found outside ofgovernment, in our communities and businesses.
Providing equality of opportunity to all citizens should remain a guiding principle.
Education will bekey. Business, government and civil society leaders must cometogetherto ensure the quality of education is improved to meet the demands of atechnology-drivenknowledge economy. More importantly, whether in New York or Beijing, or anywhere else, citizens must not bebarredfrom quality education because of high costs.
Optimists feel that productivity increases will eventually lead to the creation of anentirerange of jobs not thought of earlier. Pessimists look at the pace of automationandsee a dystopian world ahead. Realists recognize that whatever the future holdsthereis an immediate scenario of displacement andagrowing challenge ofdislocation for millions of people.
As humanists, we argue that, regardless of the scenario, much more should be donetorecognize and address the needs of the all too many whom are all too forgotten andincreasinglyleft behind. That is as true in the United States as in China.